摘要：The Azores are an active volcanic region that offersexceptional conditions for nature-based tourism, one of the main axes ofeconomic growth in the archipelago. A future volcanic eruption may havelong-term consequences to this economic sector. Therefore, it is fundamentalto assess its vulnerability to volcanic hazards in order to try to mitigatethe associated risk. This study proposes a new approach to assessing theeconomic impact of explosive eruptions on the tourism sector. We consideredtwo eruptive scenarios for Fogo volcano (São Miguel Island), the mostprobable (Volcanic Explosivity Index, VEI, 4 sub-Plinian eruption) and the worst-case (VEI 5 Plinianeruption), both producing tephra fallout and pyroclastic density currents.The results of numerical simulations were overlaid with tourism-relatedbuildings and infrastructure of Vila Franca do Campo municipality toidentify the elements at risk. The loss present value method was used toestimate the benefits generated by the accommodation units over 30 years fordifferent economic scenarios. The assessment of the economic impact using2018 indicators reveals that in a near-total-destruction scenario, theeconomic loss is approximately EUR 145 million (considering a 2 %discount rate). This approach can also be applied to other volcanic regions,geologic hazards and economic sectors.
