摘要：The design of coastal protection measures and the quantification of coastalrisks at locations affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) are often based solelyon the analysis of historical cyclone tracks. Due to data scarcity and therandom nature of TCs, the assumption that a hypothetical TC could hit aneighboring area with equal likelihood to past events can potentially leadto over- and/or underestimations of extremes and associated risks. Thesimulation of numerous synthetic TC tracks based on (historical) data canovercome this limitation. In this paper, a new method for the generation ofsynthetic TC tracks is proposed. The method has been implemented in the highlyflexible open-source Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool(TCWiSE). TCWiSE uses an empirical track model based on Markov chains and cansimulate thousands of synthetic TC tracks and wind fields in any oceanic basinbased on any (historical) data source. Moreover, the tool can be used todetermine the wind extremes, and the output can be used for the reliableassessment of coastal hazards. Validation results for the Gulf of Mexico showthat TC patterns and extreme wind speeds are well reproduced by TCWiSE.
