摘要：This study evaluates the impact of potential future climate change on floodregimes, floodplain protection, and electricity infrastructures across theConasauga River watershed in the southeastern United States through ensemblehydrodynamic inundation modeling. The ensemble streamflow scenarios weresimulated by the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) drivenby (1) 1981–2012 Daymet meteorological observations and (2) 11 sets ofdownscaled global climate models (GCMs) during the 1966–2005 historical and2011–2050 future periods. Surface inundation was simulated using aGPU-accelerated Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for OperationalNeeds (TRITON) hydrodynamic model. A total of 9 out of the 11 GCMs exhibit anincrease in the mean ensemble flood inundation areas. Moreover, at the 1 %annual exceedance probability level, the flood inundation frequency curvesindicate a ∼ 16 km2 increase in floodplain area. Theassessment also shows that even after flood-proofing, four of thesubstations could still be affected in the projected future period. Theincrease in floodplain area and substation vulnerability highlights the needto account for climate change in floodplain management. Overall, this studyprovides a proof-of-concept demonstration of how the computationallyintensive hydrodynamic inundation modeling can be used to enhance floodfrequency maps and vulnerability assessment under the changing climaticconditions.
