期刊名称：Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection
印刷版ISSN：2327-4336
电子版ISSN：2327-4344
出版年度：2021
卷号：09
期号：9
页码：87-101
DOI：10.4236/gep.2021.99006
语种：English
出版社：Scientific Research Pub
摘要：Based on the CMIP5 simulation and numerical model, the permafrost thermal regimes over Northern Hemisphere land during the early (2016-2035), middle (2046-2065) and late (2080-2099) period of 21st century are projected, and its relationship with climate change is also analyzed. The results show that, relative to the reference period of 1986-2005, the mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) over Northern Hemisphere shows an increasing trend, with a decreasing trend of the depth of zero annual amplitude (DZAA), and the most significant changes occur in Siberia, Tibetan Plateau, Canada arctic and Alaska, and the changes in MAGT and DZAA grow larger with time and emission, especially during the LP for RCP8.5, MAGT will increase by 4 and DZAA decreases by 1.5 m (the relative change exceeds 20%) in most regions. The changes of permafrost in the 21st century mainly depend on the changes of cold permafrost. The relationship between MAGT and air temperature as well as that between DZAA and air temperature suggests that the increase of MAGT and the decrease of DZAA are related to the increase of air temperature in winter, especially in January. However, the rate of change in MAGT and DZAA gradually declines, with the temperature increasing.
关键词：CMIP5PermafrostMean Annual Ground TemperatureDepth of Zero Annual Amplitude
