期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2021
卷号：118
期号：36
DOI：10.1073/pnas.2105292118
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：Significance
A simple model shows that control of COVID-19 infection driven by asymptomatic transmission on an urban, residential college campus is possible by instituting comprehensive public health protocols founded on surveillance testing and contact tracing. The model gives expressions for the number of infections expected as a function of these protocols and compares well with data from a large residential university for fall 2020.
A customized susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered compartmental model is presented for describing the control of asymptomatic spread of COVID-19 infections on a residential, urban college campus embedded in a large urban community by using public health protocols, founded on surveillance testing, contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine. Analysis in the limit of low infection rates—a necessary condition for successful operation of the campus—yields expressions for controlling the infection and understanding the dynamics of infection spread. The number of expected cases on campus is proportional to the exogenous infection rate in the community and is decreased by more frequent testing and effective contact tracing. Simple expressions are presented for the dynamics of superspreader events and the impact of partial vaccination. The model results compare well with residential data from Boston University’s undergraduate population for fall 2020.
