摘要：With rapid economic development in China, the excessive expansion of cities has led to the imbalance of land use structure, and then the ecological regulation function of the land ecosystem experiences problems, which has become an obstacle to sustainable development. Therefore, in order to protect the ecological environment, regulate urban development and pursue the maximization of ecological benefits, it is necessary to analyze, simulate and predict land use change. In this study, Hengyang City was taken as the study area, and based on the current land use data of Hengyang City in 2010, 2015, and 2018, the land use type transfer during 2010–2015 and 2015–2018 was analyzed. Then, starting from 2010, the FLUS model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2015 and 2018, and then the spatial distribution of land use in Hengyang City in 2025 was predicted with the Markov prediction method under the premise of ecological protection priority. The results show that the change in ecological land in Hengyang City is mainly distributed in the surrounding and marginal areas, because the topography of Hengyang City is a basin. Changes in land type in Hengyang City in 2015 were subtle and difficult to observe. However, in 2018, the transformation of non-ecological land into ecological land was obvious, and the distribution area of ecological land expanded significantly. The Kappa index of the results simulated by the FLUS model based on neural network is above 0.72, and overall accuracy is above 0.9, which is highly consistent with the actual situation. It is reasonable and convincing to predict the spatial distribution of land use in the context of ecological protection. The predicted results can be useful for urban planning and land use distribution and provide a reference for relevant decision-makers.
