摘要：Background: We aimed to compare the prediction efficiency of back propagation (BP) network and grey model (GM) (1.1) for mumps infectious diseases and compare the application effect of the two models. Methods: By calculating the average incidence rate of mumps in January 2014 -2016, we conducted the modeling of the BP time series, GM (1,1) grey model and the combination models of them, and predicted the incidence rate in June 2016 in comparison with the actual one. We compared the quarterly incidence rate to test the two prediction models, and compared the advantages and disadvantages of these models. Results: R value of BP model was 68.45%, for GM (1,1) was 58.49%, and for combined forecasting model was 86.95%. We used the principal component analysis clustering method to control the samples, and found that the samples were close to the population mean. We found that the GM (1.1) model was more suitable for the prediction of mumps infection mode. We carried out dimension reduction analysis on the model data, and the accuracy of the data after dimension reduction is within the range of Da. For the discrete degree of the data in the combined model, matlab pipeline was used to verify the reliability of the data and results. By calculation after manifold optimization small error probability was P=0.875 and semi mean relative error 2.43%. Conclusion: BP, GM (1,1) is a better method for modeling the epidemic trend of mumps in China, but the efficiency of prediction is not as high as the combination of them.
关键词：Mumps; Back propagation network; Grey model; China
