摘要：Assessing and predicting the evolution of habitat quality based on land use change under the process of urbanization is important for establishing a comprehensive ecological planning system and addressing the major challenges of global sustainable development. Here, two different prediction models were used to simulate the land use changes in 2025 based on the land use distribution data of Nanchang city in three periods and integrated into the habitat quality assessment model to specifically evaluate the trends and characteristics of future habitat quality changes, explore the impact of landscape pattern evolution on habitat, and analyze the differences and advantages of the two prediction models. The results show that the overall habitat quality in Nanchang declined significantly during the period 1995–2015. Habitat degradation near cities and in various watersheds is relatively significant. During the period 2015–2025, the landscape pattern and habitat quality of Nanchang will continue to maintain the trend of changes observed between 1995 and 2015, i.e., increasing construction land and decreasing habitat quality, with high pressure on ecological restoration. This study also identified that CA-Markov simulates the quantity of land use better, while FLUS simulates the spatial pattern of land use better. Overall, this study provides a reference for exploring the complex dynamic evolution mechanism of habitats.
