摘要：The responses of hydrologic processes and nitrogen cycles to future climate change in the Miyun Reservoir Basin (MRB) were investigated bycombining the Hadley Centre Global Environmental models version 2 (HadGEM2-AO) and Soil and Water Assessment Model (SWAT). Climatic projections (2035-2049) under RCP4.5 emission scenarios were used to drive the calibrated SWAT model. Results showed that Maximum and Minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) in the watershed would increase by an average of 85.41 mm, 1.35 C and 1.62 C, respectively. SWAT predicted increased potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff. laterflow, soil water content. Compared to the mean annual discharge for the baseline period (16.5 m/s), river streamflow was projected to increase by 81% and 63% for YSU-RSM and RegCM4 models, respectively. Regional climate change would also accelerate mineralization rate in the catchment and ultimately, total nitrogen and nitrate export from the catchment. Mean mineralization rate would increase by 12 and 19% for YSU-RSM and RegCM4 in the projection period. The combined of mineralization rate and increased surface runoff would cause the increase in the total nitrogen and nitrate export in the watershed with a mean increased percentage of 41% and 44.5%. respectively.
关键词：Climate change;Non-point pollution;Miyun Reservoir Basin;CORDEX-East Asia;SWAT model
