摘要：Through a specific investigation and research in Xiangyang, Hubei, China's main grain producing area, we collect the 2003-2015 grain output and other geographic information data in the research area. We use simplified farmland qublity weight nor- malization data method, employ the GRA model to find out the key factors leading to farmland quality, and apply the AHP model for further sensitivity analysis to predict the fiuture development trend of arable land quality, and comprehensively guide the prevention and adjustment of agricultural production. The correlation between soil, land reclamation rate, fragmentation, annual average sunshine, cultivated land value per unit area, annual precipitation, and the number of agricultural machineries per unit area isbetween 0.8-1. These factors are currently the most pressing issues which needs to be focused. The re-sults of AHP analysis show that among the factors, the soil and land reclamation rate rights are greater than 0.26, which is much larger than the weight val- ues of other factors. The calculation results ofthe cri- terion-level weight show that the weight of the obvi ous influencing factor value reached 0.53, which is much larger than the weight of the implicit and indi- rect influencing factors (0.297 and 0.163, respec- tively). The obvious influence has the greatest im- pact on the cultivated land quality in the study area, and the indirect impact is the least.
