摘要：The increase in the demand for two-wheelers in Cambodia has led to a significant increase in the import of used two-wheelers from Asian countries. The practical lifespan of two-wheelers newly reused in Cambodia is therefore quite short, resulting in the quick and significant generation of end-of-life vehicles. While there has been an increase in the number of studies based on developing waste estimation models, scenarios in which reused products are imported to a given country have not been given significant attention. A model is needed that would account for two-wheelers imported for reuse by second and third owners in Cambodia, considering differences in lifespan among two-wheelers. In a scenario analysis for estimating the number of obsolete two-wheelers, both local production and import for reuse in Cambodia were considered during the period of 2010–2040. A population balance model modified for both cases was used in the scenario analysis. Through these analyses, it was estimated that the number of discarded two-wheelers in Cambodia in 2040 will be in the range of 754,000 to 986,000 units, which is 6.2–8.5 times more than in 2020. Strategies for waste mitigation and effective treatment for resource recycling using discarded two-wheelers in Cambodia are discussed to provide guidelines for avoiding environmental pollution and resource dissipation.
关键词：ELV;environmental dumping;motorcycle;recycling;Weibull distribution
