期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2021
卷号：118
期号：49
DOI：10.1073/pnas.2108395118
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：Significance
Cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) has been hypothesized to contribute to the relative sparing of children during the early phase of the pandemic. Testing this relies on understanding the prepandemic age distribution of recent HCoV infections, but little is known about their dynamics. Using England and Wales as a case study, we use a transmission model to estimate the duration of immunity to seasonal coronaviruses, and show how cross-protection could have affected the age distribution of susceptibility during the first wave, and could alter SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns over the coming decade.
We hypothesized that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the prepandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 y of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.8 y (95% CI 6.3 to 8.1) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.
