期刊名称：Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies
印刷版ISSN：1729-3774
电子版ISSN：1729-4061
出版年度：2013
卷号：2
期号：11
页码：4-7
DOI：10.15587/1729-4061.2013.11721
语种：English
出版社：PC Technology Center
摘要：In the whole world, as well as in Ukraine, nowadays the issue of prediction and determination of the negative events likelihood in potentially dangerous production facilities is gaining importance. This question was touched upon by many scientists. This paper, on the basis of established methodics, presents the new algorithm of man-caused risk determination, based on the Monte-Carlo method, which allows for lowering the computational complexity as compared to the “tree of events” method and probabilistic model. The application of Weibull distribution for the random variable modeling made possible to calculate the probability of the negative event. Obtained data results proved the possibility of applying this algorithm for the man-caused risk determination in the potentially dangerous production facilities with different scenario of development events.
关键词：Algorithm;man-caused risk;Monte Carlo method;scenario of development events;acceptable risk
