期刊名称：Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies
印刷版ISSN：1729-3774
电子版ISSN：1729-4061
出版年度：2016
卷号：2
期号：9
页码：25-34
DOI：10.15587/1729-4061.2016.66306
语种：English
出版社：PC Technology Center
摘要：The study suggests a four-level model of a prognostic software system designed to solve the problems set forth for prognostic management of strategic decision-making support, including collection of statistical data, formation of a set of the main predictive methods, aggregation of prognostic estimates from different sources, and provision of an interactive mode of a parameter setting.One of the models considered for the low level is the Brown prognostic model. A method of its parameter setting is suggested in the study on the basis of a retrospective analysis, which, unlike the existing ones, allows determining the tuning parameters of the model and ensures a maximum resistance of prognostic estimates to changes in the internal model parameters.To create a means of prognostic data integration at the upper level, the study suggests a method of dynamic aggregation of prognostic estimates based on identifying prediction accuracy tendencies of alternative prediction sources, which, unlike the existing methods, ensures adaptability of the integration system and prognostic software support for strategic decision-making.
关键词：prognostic software;managerial decision-making support;prediction/forecasting;integrated forecasting / aggregation of prognostic estimates
