期刊名称：Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies
印刷版ISSN：1729-3774
电子版ISSN：1729-4061
出版年度：2017
卷号：5
期号：3
页码：60-69
DOI：10.15587/1729-4061.2017.112356
语种：English
出版社：PC Technology Center
摘要：Modeling of a delivery system, which renders services of international material supply, usually is performed from the positions of the deterministic approach. This allows us to determine clearly the scope of effective use of transport technologies, which in practice can give a negative result. In connection with this, the probabilistic-statistical approach to simulation of cargo delivery time at unimodal and multimodal transportation was proposed in this research. To account for all possible conditions of delivery, factor space was constructed based on the route Ukraine – Italy and a plan for an extreme experiment was developed. Replication of experiments within each series was performed through simulation of such random processes as vehicles’ arrival at the border checkpoint, changes in technical motion speed of a vehicle and time of transportation request placement. As a result, regression models of estimation of cargo delivery time on delivery condition "just in time". They represent additive functions by the following parameters: downtime at a border checkpoint, delivery distance (for unimodal transportation), and supply distance, dispatch distance and section speed of a train (for multimodal transportation). They served as the basis for determining of effectiveness of application of unimodal and multimodal services on example of route Ukraine – Italy. It was found that when performing delivery by the unimodal option, rolling stock turnover on the route increases up to 47 per cent. In this case, if the pessimistic scenario of the supply system functioning is taken into consideration, efficiency of application of the multimodal transportation option approaches that of the unimodal. While taking into account hour indicators of the delivery process, expediency of application of the unimodal transportation option, based on heavy motor trains, becomes apparent. This refutes common opinions about economically reasonable expediency of application of motor transport as the main transport at the distance of up to 500 kilometers.
