摘要：The object of this research is the voyage efficiency of ship in terms of its deviation under the influence of risk factors. Time charter equivalent is considered as an efficiency indicator. The aim of this research is to establish the effect of the main characteristics of the ship and the voyage to the possible deviation of the ship efficiency.During research the next methods are used:Regression analysis – to establish a kind of connection between the characteristics of the ship (voyage) and elements of the operating costs and income.Probability theory (characteristics and properties of the normal distribution law) – to assess possible deviations of voyage time.Functional analysis to investigate the effect of voyage and ship characteristics on possible decrease in the voyage efficiency.Principal types of dependencies of income and cost elements for ship (freight rate, fuel consumption, port charges) in voyage on cargo capacity and transportation distance. Obtained patterns allow to formulate expression of efficiency parameter deviation of the voyage ship as a function of voyage and ship characteristics.Conclusions about the effect of ship size and transportation distance on the possible deviations of voyage efficiency are made. In particular, it is found that possible reduction in the time charter equivalent with an increase in voyage duration is less significant than at shorter distances. Also, it is determined that a significant effect along with the standard deviation of voyage time has a level of freight rates – even its slight increase results in a notable difference in efficiency losses.These results allow to estimate the possible deviations of voyage efficiency under the influence of risk factors. Value of time charter equivalent deviation can serve as an additional criterion for decision about ship charter, along with parameters of the daily incomes and time charter equivalent, being a kind of risk assessment of voyage efficiency reduction.
关键词：regression dependence;deviation;time charter equivalent;transportation distance;cargo capacity;probability
