摘要：Background: This research aimed to model the outbreak of COVID-19 in Malaysia and develop a GUI-based model.
Design and methods: The model is an improvement of the susceptible, infected, recovery, and death (SIRD) compartmental model. The epidemiological parameters of the infection, recovery, and death rates were formulated as time dependent piecewise functions by incorporating the control measures of lockdown, social distancing, quarantine, lockdown lifting time and the percentage of people who abide by the rules. An improved SIRD model was solved
via the 4
th order Runge-Kutta (RK4) method and 14 unknown parameters were estimated by using Nelder- Mead algorithm and pattern-search technique. The publicly available data for COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia was used to validate the performance of the model. The GUI-based SIRD model was developed to simulate the number of active cases of COVID-19 over time by considering movement control order (MCO) lifted date and the percentage of people who abide the rules.
Results: The simulator showed that the improved SIRD model adequately fitted Malaysia COVID-19 data indicated by low values of root mean square error (RMSE) as compared to other existing models. The higher the percentage of people following the SOP, the lower the spread of disease. Another key point is that the later the lifting time after the lockdown, the lower the spread of disease.
Conclusions: These findings highlight the importance of the society to obey the intervention measures in preventing the spread of the COVID-19 disease.
Significance for public health
This research is in line with critical areas in Malaysia that are in close association with the community in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. This study contributes to the understanding of COVID-19 contagion in Malaysia. This model guides the policymakers to plan the 'exit strategy' of the COVID-19 outbreak as it can forecast the spreading dynamics of the disease in the population accompanied by the intervention measures of quarantine, isolation, lockdown lifting time and the percentage of the people who follow the SOP. The key ingredients to win the battle against the pandemic are embracing the new normal and community responsibility empowerment. This research showed that the individual act of following SOP can prevent the spread of the disease.
