出版社：Institute for Social Science, Demographic Research Center
摘要：The social, economic, and cultural changes that have taken place in Europe in the past few decades in the field of fertility have been accompanied by an increase in permanent childlessness. The childlessness level among women born in 1968 is 12% in Serbia, slightly below the European average (14%). The aim of this paper is to explore in more detail the level of childlessness in Serbia and the characteristics of women aged 15-49 without live births. Changes in childlessness over a 60-year period (1961-2020) by five-year age groups were analysed. The basic characteristics of childless women of reproductive age by education, marital status, and age were observed from 1991 to 2011. The paper is based on census and vital statistics data. The authors introduce two new indicators of childlessness: the general childlessness rate (GChR) as the share of women without live births in the total female population aged 15-49, and the age-specific childlessness rate (ASChR) as the percentage of childless women by age. Changes in cumulative fertility rates by age were less influenced by the reproductive behaviour of mothers and much more by an increase in the proportion of childless women. The general childlessness rate until 1991 was relatively stable in Serbia. Since then, it has increased intensely (from 30.1% in 1991 to 41.6% in 2011, and 43.4% in 2020). The increase in childlessness is largely a consequence of the postponement of first births, but also of the increase in permanent childlessness among women aged 45-49. The postponement of first births has occured in all age groups and the ASChR has increased across the board. In Serbia, in 2020, the ASChR reached record values for all five-year age groups (36.5% for women aged 30-34, 21.4% for ages 35-39), as did the level of permanent childlessness (13.8% for ages 45-49). The paper also analyses childlessness by education and marital status. According to census data (1991, 2002, and 2011), the general childlessness rate is lowest among women without any formal education and those who haven’t completed primary school, and highest among women with a primary education. Childlessness rates are particularly high among women in their thirties and forties. The influence of marital status on the level of childlessness was also confirmed. The GChR of single women was at least 10 times higher than the value for ever married women. The GChR ranged from 96% to 89% for single women and invariably slightly above 8% for ever married women. The results of direct standardization showed the greater importance of the changes that occurred between 1991 and 2011 by education and marital status of women aged 15-49 on the childlessness level, as well as their completely opposite effects compared to those caused by the change in the age structure. The large impact of changes in marital structure also indicates the possibility of a certain influence on reducing childlessness in Serbia. As the decreasein marriage is not accompanied by a higherprevalence of stable extramarital unions, it’s possible that the creation of more favourable circumstances for an independent life for young people and for forming a union could contribute to reducing the postponement of childbearing, and thus reducing childlessness during and at the end of the reproductive age. This is especially important considering that family and children are highly valued in Serbia. It should be noted that the high and growing shares of women without children in the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups limit the possibilities of reducing permanent childlessness, particularly in the near future.
