摘要：Loss of green space habitats and landscape fragmentation are important reasons for the decline in environmental quality, degradation of ecosystem functions, and decline in biodiversity. Quantifying the spatio-temporal characteristics of landscape fragmentation of green space and its relationship with urban expansion mode is an important basis for improving urban development mode and enhancing urban ecological functions. For this paper, we took the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration as the research object, a typical rapidly urbanizing area. Through multi-scale landscape pattern analysis and statistical analysis, the spatial–temporal evolution characteristics of green space fragmentation in the BTH urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2020 and the influence of urban expansion were analyzed, and the land-use situation in 2030 was predicted by the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model. The main conclusions are as follows: The BTH urban agglomeration has developed rapidly in the last 20 years, showing the characteristics of diffusion and corridor development. The intensity and pattern of urban expansion have significantly affected the pattern of green space, leading to the intensification of domestic green space fragmentation. Among them, urban expansion exerts most severe effects on the fragmentation of farmland, followed by grassland and water. The influence of urban expansion on the scale and fragmentation of forestland is limited. The forecast results in 2030 show that built-up areas may continue to occupy green space. The rate of occupation of farmland will slow down while that of grassland will intensify.
