期刊名称：International Journal of Environmental Science and Development
印刷版ISSN：2010-0264
出版年度：2021
卷号：12
期号：12
页码：372-376
DOI：10.18178/ijesd.2021.12.12.1363
语种：English
摘要：The objectives of this work are: 1) to monitor the trend of rainfall data in in-season rice field period of Thailand (April to August). 2) to analyze meteorological drought by Standardized Precipitation Index : SPI in Northeast Thailand in in-season rice field period of Thailand and 3) to predict the rainfall data in in-season rice field period of Thailand of 202The average monthly rainfall data in April to August of 1990 – 2020 were gathered from 31 meteorological stations covered Northeast area of Thailand by Meteorological Department of Thailand. The data were used to draw trend of monthly average rainfall to track a change of rainfall in the period. Then, these were used to create distribution of meteorological drought characteristics maps under SPI criteria. Moreover, Single Moving Average model is used to predict the rainfall data with the lowest MAPE at 11.13 percentage. The results show that the higher meteorological drought risk area was always found in south-west side of the region in June to August. Moreover, average monthly rainfall increases from April and hit the peak in July and August. The trend of total monthly rainfall in in-season rice field period fluctuates along the study period with average value at 977.98 millimeters and its trend tends to be decreased at 0.1052 millimeters per year.
关键词：Meteorological drought;drought in Thailand;standardized precipitation index;rainfall change
