期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2021
卷号：2021
语种：English
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：The natural rate of interest is the equilibrium real interest rate that is consistent with inflation on target and production at full capacity. This article argues that in economies with low natural rates, such as the euro area today, macroprudential policy can have benefits for the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy, in addition to safeguarding financial stability. Notably, macroprudential policies that curb leverage of financial intermediaries during upturns can also help stimulate aggregate demand during downturns. One way they do so is by containing systemic risk in financial markets. As a by-product of the systemic risk reduction, intermediary financing and aggregate output also become more stable. This additional reduction in risk boosts the natural rate and thus reduces the likelihood of hitting the effective lower bound (ELB) on policy rates. In numerical simulations conducted for the euro area, the positive effect of macroprudential policy on the average natural rate is estimated to be around 0.7%, while the probability of hitting the ELB declines by around 8%, relative to a benchmark scenario without macroprudential policy.
