期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2021
卷号：2021
语种：English
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：This box explores how heterogeneous expectations across agents can change the macroeconomic outcomes of an increase in long-term inflation expectations. Over the recent period, long-term inflation expectations of financial market participants, which can be measured either from financial market instruments like inflation-linked swaps (ILS) or from surveys of professional forecasters, have been rising. As shown in Chart A, between the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, inflation expectations increased only slightly according to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), while this pattern was more pronounced for market-based measures. [2] In assessing the macroeconomic implications of a rise in long-term inflation expectations, a critical factor with regard to the propagation mechanism is whether other sectors of the economy (notably households and firms) share the same expectations as priced by financial markets. This issue is explored through the lens of the ECB-BASE [3] model, conducting illustrative simulations where the agents modelled have different perceptions of a shift in long-term inflation expectations.
