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文章基本信息

  • 标题:Does Anyone Need a GARCH(1,1)?
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Erhard Reschenhofer
  • 期刊名称:Journal of Finance and Accounting
  • 印刷版ISSN:2333-8849
  • 电子版ISSN:2333-8857
  • 出版年度:2013
  • 卷号:1
  • 期号:2
  • 页码:48-53
  • DOI:10.12691/jfa-1-2-2
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:Science and Education Publishing
  • 摘要:Hansen and Lunde [16] posed the question Does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)? and compared a large number of parametric volatility models in an extensive empirical study. They found that no other model provides significantly better forecasts than the GARCH(1,1) model. In contrast, this paper arrives at the conclusion that simple robust estimators such as weighted medians of past (squared) returns outperform the GARCH(1,1) model both in-sample as well as out-of-sample. This conclusion is based on theoretical arguments as well as on empirical evidence.
  • 关键词:conditional heteroskedasticity; volatility; weighted medians; intraday range; Brownian motion
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