期刊名称：Journal of Theoretical and Applied Information Technology
印刷版ISSN：1992-8645
电子版ISSN：1817-3195
出版年度：2021
卷号：99
期号：18
语种：English
出版社：Journal of Theoretical and Applied
摘要：The present article deals with a COVID-19 propagation system. A new compartmental model is established. Migration is allowed into the population. We establish the basic reproduction number and proof that it is an increasing function of migration rates. The final size relation has been determined in the case of closed population. Moroccan data are used in order to compute the parameters of the proposed model. Principal epidemiological results have been compared in the presence and absence of migration using a simulation algorithm based on the dynamical systems approach on the one hand, and the multi-agent approach on the other hand. Both approaches have been implemented using NetLogo. The study, under the two approaches, has proven that migration causes a diminution of the timing of the general infection and the symptomatic peaks. It causes also an augmentation in the maximum values of the general infection and the symptomatic prevalences. The model provides a quantitative illustration of migration influence on disease spread in populations and proposes a practical hybrid framework that will be useful in analyzing and controlling many case studies of COVID-19 spread.
