摘要：Even the most casual observers of history concede that attempts to predict the next threat to national defense are often erroneous and, consequently, not only futile but also misleading. In elegant yet candid fashion, Nassim Taleb addresses the inclination to fallaciously predict by conceptualizing the “black swan" phenomenon, which involves highly improbable events, thus almost impossible to anticipate, that inflict disproportionate influence. Subsequently, we examine these events in hindsight and rationalize them with prescriptive remedies. Though doing so is a human tendency, such a retrospective analysis ignores the fact that these events transcend normal expectations and, therefore, are innately unpredictable. Taleb's The Black Swan is an inviting narrative of this phenomenon, driving deeply into the author's philosophical approach to life and, in the process, providing an invaluable education in history, philosophy, economics, and foreboding—all of which make the book a welcomed companion for those who seek to understand the future.
