摘要：SummaryIndia is the third largest CO2emitter worldwide, and its electricity demand, which is primarily supplied by coal-fired generation, is expected to increase almost threefold over the next twenty years. Here, we simulate 40 scenarios for the 2040 Indian electricity sector, considering uncertainty in future natural gas prices and costs for batteries and variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, under different CO2emissions limits and renewable portfolio standard (RPS) targets. We find a large-scale expansion of VRE, particularly, solar PV, in most scenarios. Furthermore, energy storage competes with natural gas and coal to provide flexibility to integrate VRE. Given a set of technology assumptions, policies that explicitly limit CO2emissions are more cost-effective at reducing emissions than RPS policies. The former are also more effective at reducing air pollution than RPS policies by explicitly penalizing CO2emissions, thereby reducing coal generation more substantially than RPS policies.Graphical abstractDisplay OmittedHighlights•We simulate 40 scenarios for the 2040 Indian electricity sector•Large-scale expansion of VRE, particularly solar PV, occurs in most scenarios•CO2policies are less costly and reduce more air pollution than alternatives•Renewables policies retain more incumbent generation than CO2policiesEnergy resources; Energy policy; Energy sustainability; Energy flexibility; Energy systems
