摘要：Building on the well-established knowledge on fertility differentials by educationand nativity/migration status, we employ microsimulation modelling to demonstratethe effect of accounting for such differences in population projections. We considerfertility differentials by educational attainment, enrolment in full-time education,region of birth, age at immigration, and duration of stay in the host country, whichwe introduce step-wise into the microsimulation model for the EU28. Results onprojected TFRs and births by 2060 illustrate the importance of accounting forseveral sources of population heterogeneity. In the context of future educationalexpansion, modelling education differentials for students and for women withcompleted education is needed to capture the postponement effect of education onchildbearing. Future migration assumptions that include migrant fertility differen-tials lead to widely varying projected numbers of future births. At fixed fertilitydifferentials and a fixed composition of immigrant flows, the net effect of immigrantfertility on the overall TFR in the EU28 is projected to increase from the estimated0.12 in 2015–2019 to 0.17 in 2055–59 in the scenario with baseline migration, andto 0.25 in 2055–59 in the scenario with doubled migration.
