摘要：The Obama administration’s 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) represented a significant departure from previous reviews. It explicitly included the goal of “global zero,” added nuclear security to the scope of the review, declared a negative security assurance with fewer exceptions than any previous administration, and reduced the role of nuclear weapons to a narrow range of contingencies. It is essential for the Trump administration to follow its predecessor and live up to US obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty by recommitting to global zero as a long-term goal. At the moment, concerns of allies are still overriding the chances of a posture that would further limit the role of nuclear weapons by implementing a “sole purpose” posture or a “no-first-use” declaration. But these policies should remain long-term goals, and the administration should continue to work to create the conditions for implementation. This includes improving regional security architectures and increasing reliance on conventional capabilities. Strategic stability should remain the organizing concept toward Russia and China, and negative security assurances should be maintained to advance nonproliferation objectives. Altogether, continuity in declaratory policy is still in the best interests of the United States as it would strengthen relations with allies, mitigate the fears of Russia and China, and pave the way toward a more cooperative relationship based on dialogue instead of threats.
