摘要：The world has changed! It has become more complex, with shadowyand seemingly unpredictable conflicts taking place around the globe. Butthere is a pattern to these fights. They are not unpredictable but discernable. The sources of instability in the twenty-first century’s internationalsecurity environment will largely result from a proliferation in the numberof weak and failing states as well as powerful armed groups, some of whichare able to affect fundamental security by causing major geopolitical damage in their own states, in various regions, or to the United States itself.Moreover, this proliferation creates new interactions and interrelationships between and among local, regional, and global players. These developments, in turn, are fostering the emergence of partnerships and coalitionscomprised of armed groups, other nonstate actors, and authoritarianrevisionist states. These formal and informal groupings employ an array ofirregular violent and nonviolent means to extend their power and influence.A persistent and enduring pattern of irregular conflict is observable, and itwill continue well into the twenty-first century. Faced with these security challenges, democratic states will likewise need to foster their own coalitions of both state and nonstate allies to oppose them. This article provides the broad contours of these developments through the lens of realworld cases.1 In a 1997 speech, the commandant of the Marine Corps,Gen Charles Krulak, warned that conflict and war in the future would bedifferent from the conventional contingencies the Pentagon was preparedto fight. Titling his speech “Not like Yesterday,” he counseled that thisconventional mind-set could lead to military misfortunes: “[O]ur enemieswill not allow us to fight the son of Desert Storm, but they will try to drawus into the stepchild of Chechnya. Our most dangerous enemies will challenge us asymmetrically in ways against which we are least able to bringstrength to bear—as we witnessed in the slums of Mogadishu.”2.
