期刊名称：International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Management
电子版ISSN：2395-5252
出版年度：2021
卷号：3
期号：2
页码：205-213
DOI：10.35629/5252-03028491
语种：English
出版社：IJAEM JOURNAL
摘要：This article uses the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression (MS-DR) model, in order to verify the dynamics of industrial production in Brazil during the period from January 2002 to December 2020, in which the subprime crisis and the crisis of the COVID-19. In particular, two regimes were used (regime 1 - growth and regime 2 - recession or retraction). Regime 1 is more persistent, that is, the probability of staying in that regime in a later period is 97,66% and the change to regime 2 is 31,79%. In regime 2, the probability of maintaining this regime in the period t + 1 is 68,21%, while the probability of changing to regime 1 is 2,34%.
关键词：Markov Switching Dynamic Regression;Covid-19 Pandemic;Brazilian Industrial production
