摘要：AbstractThis study summarized the procedure for the seasonal predictions of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP), which is currently operating at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Republic of Korea. The methodology was briefly described, and its prediction accuracy was verified. Seasonal predictions were produced by synthesizing spatiotemporal evolutions of various climate factors such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), monsoon activity, and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), using four models: a statistical, a dynamical, and two statistical–dynamical models. The KMA forecaster predicted the number of TCs over the WNP based on the results of the four models and season to season climate variations. The seasonal prediction of TCs is announced through the press twice a year, for the summer on May and fall on August. The present results showed low accuracy during the period 2014–2020. To advance forecast skill, a set of recommendations are suggested.
关键词：KeywordsenTropical cyclonesSeasonal predictionWestern north pacificStatistical modelStatistical–dynamical modelDynamical modelForecast error and verification
