期刊名称：International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences
电子版ISSN：2222-6990
出版年度：2021
卷号：11
期号：11
页码：245-261
DOI：10.6007/IJARBSS/v11-i11/11178
语种：English
出版社：Human Resource Management Academic Research Society
摘要：The objectives of this study are first, to examine a nonlinear long-run relationship between exchange rate and reserve and related item in Malaysia. Second, to examine the causal relationship between exchange rate, reserve and related item, money supply, interest rate, foreign direct investment, and price in Malaysia. Third, to forecast the relationship between exchange rate, reserve and related item, money supply, interest rate, foreign direct investment, and price in Malaysia for the next 50 years. To achieve our objective, we employed the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL), Toda Yamamoto causality test and variance decomposition. We utilize a time series dataset from 1982 to 2018. We find reserve items are significant to have a negative relationship with exchange rate. However, it limits to only a decrease in reserve items will encourage the Ringgit to be depreciated. On the other hand, reserve items are expected to influence more in exchange rate fluctuation in the next 50 years. On the other hand, reserve items are significant to cause FDI inflow in Malaysia.
