期刊名称：International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences
电子版ISSN：2222-6990
出版年度：2018
卷号：8
期号：16
页码：38-59
DOI：10.6007/IJARBSS/v8-i16/5117
语种：English
出版社：Human Resource Management Academic Research Society
摘要：Tourism forecasting plays an important role for the future development of tourism industry to accelerate the economic growth. The appropriate forecast in tourism gives benefit to both public and private sectors as the information concerning the future tourism flows is important to tourism stakeholder. However, there is no appropriate forecasting model employed in Penang. Hence, the purpose of this study is to determine the best model in forecasting international tourist arrivals in Penang for 2016–2017. Secondary data on tourist arrival to Penang for 2010-2015 was obtained from Ministry of Tourism and Culture Malaysia. The data were analysed using software QM for Windows. Trend projection model and trend projection with seasonal effect model are used in this study. The accuracy of these two models are determined using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the results show that trend projection with seasonal effect model outperformed trend projection model. MAPE results are between 7.7% and 33.6%. Therefore, trend projection with seasonal effect model will be proposed to be employed in forecasting international tourist arrivals in Penang. Adequate data is important in managing resources to avoid scarcity, or over spending and excessive waste in resources. Thus, this study will be beneficial to the local authority, industry players, as well as other tourism stakeholders in Penang.
