摘要：The economy is in a state of transformation into a new system, and it is quite realistic that economic entities will be under the influence of certain risky moments. The process of risk analysis and management should be considered by an enterprise as an integral part of enterprise management in extreme conditions of the economic development trajectory and be a guarantor of financial insurance. The goal of this study is the formation of a process approach in enterprise management—the creation of a universal risk management system based on the proposed risk management model to minimize the financial risks of an enterprise. We propose a risk management system that influences the forecasting of financial stability of an enterprise. To form the risk management system, we propose a model of an organisational system, the structural elements of which correspond to the principles of completeness, information capacity and consistency. We identified the diversity of direct and inverse relationships between factorial and productive characteristics, which indicates the complexity of the organisational system management process. The presence of “bottlenecks” in the implementation of expert systems tools was also noted. This was expressed in the difficulty of acquiring the knowledge necessary for the development of meaningful systems and structuring the knowledge gained in a form that is convenient for use. We used the method of qualitative modelling using the apparatus of weighted directed graphs. The study allowed us to formulate a list of factors that characterize the main activities of an enterprise in order to form a mathematical model of enterprise risk management. The developed predictive model is used to simulate extreme events and risks in the process of enterprise development, as one of the foundations of the enterprise management system in the conditions of economic transformation.
