标题：Poverty-Returning Risk Monitoring and Analysis of the Registered Poor Households Based on BP Neural Network and Natural Breaks: A Case Study of Yunyang District, Hubei Province
摘要：To address the problem of subjectivity in determining the poverty-returning risk among registered poor households, a method of monitoring and analyzing the poverty-returning risk among households based on BP neural network and natural breaks method was constructed. In the case of Yunyang District, Hubei Province, based on the data of the poverty alleviation and development system, we constructed a monitoring system for the poverty-returning risk for the registered poor households. The spatial distribution pattern of households under the poverty-returning risk was analyzed from two scales of district and township, respectively, by combining Geographic Information Science, and the influence degree of indicators on the poverty-returning risk using mean impact value (MIV). The results show that: (1) The spatial distribution of the poverty-returning risk among the registered poor households in the study area basically coincides with the local natural poverty-causing factors and the degree of social and economic development. (2) The Poverty-Returning Risk Index for each township represents a globally strong spatial dependence with a Moran’s I coefficient of 0.352. (3) The past poverty identification status of registered poor households is the main factor to reduce the poverty-returning risk, and the past policy should remain unchanged for a period of time. (4) Improving the quality of education within households and focusing on helping households with older average age can further reduce the poverty-returning risk.
