出版社：University of Tehran Electronic Journals Database
摘要：Objective: The present study seeks to identify the future of project-oriented organizations active in the financial services industry via the Scenario Planning Approach. Methods: The present study is pragmatic in terms of philosophical foundations, applied in terms of orientation, and a survey in terms of data collection. Regarding the use of qualitative and quantitative methods, it has a mixed methodology. In this study, the Binomial statistical test was used to screen key drivers, modified fuzzy VIKOR method was applied for Key driver analysis, CATWOE was used to map research scenarios, and SECA technique was applied to determine probable Scenarios. Results: In this study, 25 drivers were obtained through reviewing the literature and conducting interviews with experts. These factors were screened using the Binominal test. In this step, 17 drivers had a significance coefficient, i.e. above five percent, and were removed from the analysis. The remaining eight drivers were examined using modified fuzzy VIKOR. The two drivers i.e. the legal environment of the financial services industry and the type of interaction of traditional financial institutions with fintech had the highest priority. Based on these two drivers, the four scenarios of Dreamland, Paranoia Age, Baseless World, and Ice Age were developed for the future of project-based organizations in the financial services industry. Each driver had two opposite modes. Four scenarios were constructed from a combination of different situations of research drivers. Finally, using the SECA technique, the Baseless World scenario was selected as the most probable one. Also in this study, the scenarios of the Dreamland and the Ice Age were optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. The probable scenario was an interstitial one between two optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Conclusion: Finally, the research proposals were developed based on the most probable and worst scenario with a negative dialectical approach. The common denominator between the two scenarios (probable and pessimistic) was the dispersion of rules and standards in the financial services industry. Therefore, research proposals were developed around legislation and regulation in Fintech and the financial services industry.
