摘要：In accordance with the ecological civilization strategy, it is necessary to conduct in-depth analyses and provide a systematic elaboration of the characteristics of territorial-space structure (TSS). In the present paper, we examine Shandong Province and construct a framework for the evolution and optimization of TSS based on regional functions. The evolutionary process, pattern, and driving mechanisms of TSS are clarified using a geo-information atlas, the gravity center shift model, spatial autocorrelation analyses, and a geographic detector model. Furthermore, multi-scenario territorial-space simulations are carried out using the CA–Markov model, based on which an optimal pattern of territorial space is constructed. The results show that the comprehensive dynamic degree of territorial space in Shandong Province was valued at 0.56% from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, six geo-information Tupu of TSS evolution changed, with a total area of 35,485 km2, distributed mainly in the Yellow River Delta, the central and southern Shandong Mountain area, and the Jiaodong Peninsula. The migration route of the TSS gravity center curved over time. Territorial spaces are characterized by the exchange of ecological and agricultural space, while urban spaces occupy agricultural ones. The level of economic development, policy, and the institutional environment are driving forces in the transformation of ecological into agricultural spaces, as well as in transforming agricultural space into ecological and urban spaces. The trade-off connection of TSSs is made evident after a multi-scenario simulation of territorial space considering the 2020–2025 timeframe. Based on the goal of regional function co-ordination, Shandong Province is divided into three and four types of single and complex TSS, respectively. The obtained results may provide scientific reference for the co-ordination between human–land relationships and the sustainable use of territorial space, and serve to guide territorial spatial planning.
