摘要：The coastal zone plays an essential part in maintaining the balance of the ecosystem and promoting the development of human society and economy. It is significant to assess the extent to which the Jiaozhou Bay coastal zone withstands floods and coastal erosion during storms. The coastal exposure index (CEI) of the Jiaozhou Bay in 1984, 2000 and 2019 was obtained by the coastal vulnerability model based on data including coastline, bathymetry and coastal terrain elevation. The spatial distribution and aggregation characteristics of CEI in Jiaozhou Bay were analyzed through spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results show that the north coast of Jiaozhou Bay is highly vulnerable, that is, prone to coastal erosion, while the south and east are less vulnerable, meaning that they can basically withstand natural disasters such as storm surges and floods. The CEI shows significant spatial autocorrelation, with little spatial heterogeneity. The type of coastline, elevation, distance to continental shelf and socio-economic development are the main factors that cause the north–south vulnerability differences in the Jiaozhou Bay coast. The results can identify the districts along the Jiaozhou Bay that are at greater risk of marine disasters, and provide scientific theoretical support for the coastal protection and sustainable development of the Jiaozhou Bay.
