摘要：This paper proposes a data-driven risk assessment model for ship overtaking based on the particle swarm optimization (PSO) improved kernel density estimation (KDE). By minimizing the mean square error between the real probability distribution of the ship overtaking point and the kernel density estimation probability distribution calculated by the current kernel density bandwidth, the longitude and latitude of the ship overtaking point are displayed by the color corresponding to the probability as the cost objective function of the search bandwidth of the algorithm. This can better show the distribution of the overtaking points of channel propagation traffic flow. A probability-based ship-overtaking risk evaluation model is developed through the bandwidth and density analysis optimized by an intelligent algorithm. In order to speed up searching the optimal variable width of the kernel density estimator for ship encountering positions, an improved adaptive variable-width kernel density estimator is proposed. The latter reduces the risk of too smooth probability density estimation phenomenon. Its convergence is proved. Finally, the model can efficiently evaluate the risk status of ship overtaking and provide navigational auxiliary decision support for pilots.
