摘要：Learning tasks have been used to predict why some, and not others, develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after exposure to a traumatic event. There is some evidence from prospective studies in high risk profession samples that reduced extinction learning might represent a marker or even a vulnerability factor for PTSD development. Since the evidence is scarce, the aim of this study was to perform a conceptual replication of an earlier prospective study, testing whether pretrauma extinction learning predicts later PTSD symptom severity. Method: A sample of 529 fire fighters performed a conditioning task at baseline and filled out questionnaires to assess PTSD symptom severity and neuroticism. At six and 12 months followup, exposure to stressful events and PTSD symptom severity were measured. Results: Results indicate that previous findings were not replicated: although reduced extinction learning was associated with higher PTSD symptom severity at baseline, extinction learning did not predict PTSD symptom severity at follow-up. Only PTSD symptom severity at baseline and stressor severity predicted PTSD symptom severity at follow-up. Conclusions: Since earlier findings on the predictive value of pre-trauma extinction learning on PTSD symptom severity were not replicated, extinction learning might not be a general risk factor PTSD for all individuals. More prospective studies including multiple factors seem needed to unravel the complex relationships of these factors influencing PTSD development.
