摘要：CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technology is likely to be widely deployed in the coming decades in response to major climate and economics drivers: CCS is part of every clean energy pathway that limits global warming to 2 °C or less and receives significant CO2 tax credits in the United States. These drivers are likely to stimulate the capture, transport, and storage of hundreds of millions or billions of tonnes of CO2 annually. A key part of the CCS puzzle will be identifying and characterizing suitable storage sites for vast amounts of CO2. We introduce a new software tool called SCO2T (Sequestration of CO2 Tool, pronounced “Scott”), a dynamic CO2 injection and storage model, to rapidly characterize saline storage reservoirs. The tool is designed to rapidly screen hundreds of thousands of reservoirs, perform sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, and link sequestration engineering (injection rates, reservoir capacities, plume dimensions) to sequestration economics (costs constructed from around 70 separate economic inputs). We describe the novel science developments supporting SCO2T including a new approach to estimating CO2 injection rates and CO2 plume dimensions as well as key advances linking sequestration engineering with economics. We perform a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of geology parameter combinations—including formation depth, thickness, permeability, porosity, and temperature—to understand the impact on carbon sequestration. Through the sensitivity analysis, we show that increasing depth and permeability both can lead to increased CO2 injection rates, increased storage potential, and reduced costs, while increasing porosity reduces costs without impacting the injection rate (CO2 is injected at a constant pressure in all cases) by increasing the reservoir capacity. Through uncertainty analysis—where formation thickness, permeability, and porosity are randomly sampled—we show that final sequestration costs are normally distributed with upper bound costs around 50% higher than the lower bound costs. While site selection decisions will ultimately require detailed site characterization and permitting, SCO2T provides an inexpensive dynamic screening tool that can help prioritize projects based on the complex interplay of reservoir, infrastructure (e.g., proximity to pipelines), and other (e.g., land use, legal) constraints on the suitability of certain regions for CCS.
