期刊名称：ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information
电子版ISSN：2220-9964
出版年度：2021
卷号：10
期号：11
页码：765
DOI：10.3390/ijgi10110765
语种：English
出版社：MDPI AG
摘要：This paper uses graph theoretical measures to analyse the relationship between street network usage, as well as other street- and area-level factors, and dissident Republican violence in Belfast. A multi-level statistical model is used. Specifically, we employ an observation-level random-effects (OLRE) Poisson regression and use variables at the street and area levels. Street- and area-level characteristics simultaneously influence where violent incidents occur. For every 10% change in the betweenness value of a street segment, the segment is expected to experience 1.32 times as many incidents. Police stations (IRR: 22.05), protestant churches (IRR: 6.19) and commercial premises (IRR: 1.44) on each street segment were also all found to significantly increase the expected number of attacks. At the small-area level, for every 10% change in the number of Catholic residents, the number of incidents is expected to be 4.45 times as many. The results indicate that along with other factors, the street network plays a role in shaping terrorist target selection. Streets that are more connected and more likely to be traversed will experience more incidents than those that are not. This has important practical implications for the policing of political violence in Northern Ireland generally and for shaping specific targeted interventions.
