摘要：Effective mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the buildings sector requires a full understanding of the factors influencing emissions over the life-cycle of buildings, particularly in places where large additions to the building stock are expected. Currently, little is known about what affects the GHG emissions of buildings located in warmer climates, a typical situation for many emerging economies. This paper presents a study of emissions from Brazilian office buildings using building archetypes. A sensitivity analysis explores possible parameter ranges, various contributions to life-cycle impacts and their key drivers. For each of the 1000 building variations in the sample, the emissions were calculated using a life-cycle assessment. Multivariate regression analysis enabled the study of the results’ sensitivity to 10 parameters, influencing building operation, design and others. The emissions ranged from 20 to 106 kg CO2-eq/m2 gross floor area and year. Electricity mix, climate and cooling efficiency were the most impactful parameters, but building component service time was also significant. 'Policy relevance' Emerging economies are expected to rapidly increase their building stock and energy use, particularly for cooling in the coming decades. The findings show the key factors influencing the GHG emissions of office buildings in warm climates, typical for many emerging economies, such as Brazil. For effective mitigation, priority should be placed on reducing the carbon intensity of electricity and encouraging highly efficient heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems. Policymakers may want to offer incentives for office buildings with a combination of natural ventilation and mechanical cooling, because they were less emission-intensive in every investigated city. The benefits are the biggest for buildings in which a high proportion of windows can be opened for natural ventilation.
关键词：climate change;cooling; developing countries;energy demand;greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions;hot climates;life cycle assessment;mixed-mode ventilation;office buildings; Brazil
