摘要：With the development of technology, vehicle trajectory prediction and safety decision technology has become an important part of active safety technology. Among them, the vehicle trajectory prediction technology can predict the vehicle position, speed, and other motion states in the predicted period according to the current and historical vehicle running state, and the prediction results can provide support for judging the vehicle safety in the predicted period. In order to analyze the above problems, this study fully extracted the main feature information from the vehicle lane change track data with the help of the powerful nonlinear learning and high pattern recognition ability of support vector machine, and conducted identification modeling for the actual lane change process of the vehicle and predictive analysis of the vehicle lateral movement track. First, the lane-changing behavior of vehicles was analyzed, and the vehicle lane-changing execution stage and 10 influencing factors that could characterize lane-changing behavior were determined based on NGSIM to extract the data of lane-change-related variables. Then, a lane-changing recognition model based on gridsearch-PSO is proposed. In the Matlab environment, the model has a test accuracy of 97.68%, while the SVM model without optimization parameters has a recognition accuracy of only 80.87%. The results show that the model has strong classification ability and robustness. Finally, by using the polynomial model for lateral movement trajectory fitting, K-fold cross-validation method is used for fitting polynomial model fitting test.
