摘要：City leading industries are the pillars of urban economic development and are constantly changing as urban economic development enters different stages. The weight setting of many factors in the existing leading industry selection methods and means is mainly set by humans, which is highly subjective and lacks dynamics, integrity, and quantification, and the accuracy of prediction results is not high. Therefore, starting from respecting objective data, the SSM selection method with both dynamic and quantifiable properties is introduced. Based on the SSM mathematical model and principles, 35 manufacturing industries in Guangzhou in 2015 and 2020 are selected as initial variables and stage variables, respectively, taking 35 corresponding industrial sectors in the province as reference variables at the same time point and using the SSM algorithm as an analytical tool to conduct an empirical analysis of the share deviation component, structural deviation component, and competitiveness deviation component of the 35 manufacturing industry sectors in Guangzhou. After drawing the Shift-share analysis chart, it was found that there are 12 industrial sectors most likely to become the city leading industries in Guangzhou, and 4 suggestions for the development planning of city leading industries were put forward; they are, respectively, ➀ accelerate traditional industries technological upgrading, ➁ focus on optimizing automobile manufacturing industry, ➂ promote leading industries independent innovation, and ➃ create leading industry sharing platform.
