摘要：The probabilistic kinematic analysis for rock slope has been conducted on one slope along USAID road in Aceh Province, Indonesia. This research aims to develop the modelled probability density function (PDF) and determine the probabilistic of planar failure occurrence (Pop). The geometry of discontinuity planes (dip and dip directions) and slope geometry (slope angle and slope face) were collected from our previous study. One slope with planar failure criteria was selected. The Monte Carlo simulations were performed in generating 100 new random values in 100 time iterations to produce modelled PDFs for the geometry of discontinuity plans based on statistical parameters of field observed data. The probabilistic of each experimental PDFs were computed to produce the probabilistic of planar failure occurrence. The result reveals that the distribution of dip and dip directions for experimental PDFs are considered Beta and Normal distributions. The statistical parameters produced in the model are almost likely similar to observed data. It means the model that was developed are reliable and conscientious. The rule of Φ < βj < βs and dip directions (αj) within ±20° to slope face (αs) are utilised as the boundaries to calculate the probabilistic of planar failure occurrence (Pop) which revealing 0.26.
