期刊名称：BIS Quarterly Review: International Banking and Financial Market Developments = BIZ-Quartalsbericht: Internationales Bankgeschäft und internationale Finanzmärkte
印刷版ISSN：1012-9979
出版年度：2013
卷号：2013
语种：English
出版社：Bank for International Settlements
摘要：How do conditions in the financial sector affect the macroeconomy? We summarise the common variation in a large array of financial variables into a small set of statistical factors and examine the information content of these factors when forecasting GDP and inflation in four economies. We find that financial factors contain information that is independent of and complementary to that in real variables. This information accounts for a larger proportion of the movement in real and nominal GDP, but a smaller proportion of the variability of inflation.
