期刊名称：BIS Quarterly Review: International Banking and Financial Market Developments = BIZ-Quartalsbericht: Internationales Bankgeschäft und internationale Finanzmärkte
印刷版ISSN：1012-9979
出版年度：2018
卷号：2018
语种：English
出版社：Bank for International Settlements
摘要：Financial cycle booms can end in crises and, even if they do not, they tend to weaken growth. Given their slow build-up, do they convey information about recession risk? We compare the predictive performance of different financial cycle proxies with that of the term spread - a popular recession indicator. In contrast to much of the literature, our analysis covers a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies. We find that, in general, financial cycle measures provide valuable information and tend to outperform the term spread.
