期刊名称：BIS Quarterly Review: International Banking and Financial Market Developments = BIZ-Quartalsbericht: Internationales Bankgeschäft und internationale Finanzmärkte
印刷版ISSN：1012-9979
出版年度：2022
卷号：2022
语种：English
出版社：Bank for International Settlements
摘要：As the global economy emerges from the disruptions of the Covid-19 pandemic, attention is turning to growth prospects. We project growth over the next two decades by modelling supply-side drivers at the country and industry levels for 33 advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). Our analysis suggests that, on pre-pandemic labour productivity growth trends, the global economy would grow by roughly 2.7% per year, driven by EMEs. This outcome is subject to a degree of uncertainty. We quantify the growth impact of three scenarios: persistent pandemic-induced structural changes, a housing market-induced recession and a green energy transition. Our analysis underscores the importance of structural reforms and policies to reinvigorate the supply-side drivers of growth.
