期刊名称：Cardiff Economics Working Papers / Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School
印刷版ISSN：1749-6101
出版年度：2019
期号：10
语种：English
出版社：Cardiff University
摘要：We ask whether a model of the US and Europe trading with the rest of the world can match the facts of world behaviour in a powerful indirect inference test. One version has uncovered interest parity (UIP), the other risk-pooling. Both pass the test but the most probable is risk-pooling. This is consistent with risk-pooling failing a number of single equation tests, as has been found in past work; we show that these tests will typically reject risk-pooling when it in fact prevails. World economic behaviour under risk-pooling shows much stronger spillovers than under UIP with opposite monetary responses to the exchange rate. We argue that the risk-pooling model therefore demands more attention from policy-makers.
